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European economists now point towards French elections as the nexus for the survival of the Euro currency

European economists now point towards French elections as the nexus for the survival of the Euro currency

As we get closer to the middle of March, and the start of the cavalcade of European elections that could each change the very existence of the European Union, many economists are pointing towards France as the nexus point that could elicit a black swan for the Euro currency.

Perhaps what is most interesting regarding France’s plethora of candidates to replace Francois Hollande in the office of President is that the the establishment ones are shooting themselves in the foot, while the outsider Marine Le Pen is going about her business and gaining more and more popularity leading up to the first round of votes.

And it is Le Pen, more than any other candidate, that spooks the EU bureaucrats like Trump did the American establishment.

David McWilliams, economist, writer and journalist, has warned that the coming French election may lead to the euro breaking up and that Ireland should have a ‘plan B’ and ‘print punts’ in order to be ready for the collapse of the “single currency.”

This time last year, only a few of us were suggesting that Brexit was likely. The mainstream view was that it couldn’t possibly happen. But it did. And so too did Trump. When this column argued in June that “we should prepare for President Trump”, one or two local talk shows chuckled and sneered at the mere suggestion that such a creature could inhabit the White House. But he is there.

In December, the Italian electorate revolted against its government – again the view of ‘sensible’ people was that bolshie Italians would see reason. But they didn’t.

The next stop on this political whirlwind will be the Netherlands next month; and the big one, of course, is France. In less than 70 days, France goes to the polls and only an idiot would rule out Marine Le Pen’s chances.

The first thing to happen in the case of a Le Pen victory is that money will flood out of all non-German members of the euro. Italy will face a massive bond crisis, presaging default fears. Greece will be gone. Spain and Portugal will experience similar bond crises, and so too will Ireland. – Zerohedge

Many in Europe see Marine Le Pen as the European copy of Donald Trump, as she has outwardly praised the new American President on several occasions and offers the French the chance at nationalistic sovereignty, similar to how it has succeeded for the British following last year’s Brexit vote.

Unlike the U.S., European countries are far more diverse in their beliefs and political persuasions and it is not often that a single candidate wins the necessary 50% majority on the first ballot.  And while it is virtually assured that Le Pen will live on to see a second round of voting during the election cycle, as more and more candidates lose credibility over accusations of fraud and corruption, the paradigm shift away from the establishment could very well claim its next victor, and then all bets are off for the future of the Euro and Eurozone.

Kenneth Schortgen Jr is a writer for The Daily Economist, Secretsofthefed.comRoguemoney.net, and Viral Liberty, and hosts the popular youtube podcast on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Ken can also be heard Wednesday afternoons giving an weekly economic report on the Angel Clark radio show.


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