Initial jobless claims spike just as economy is entering into holiday shopping season
If one learns to ignore the artificially propped up stock markets and manipulated accounting that is America’s corporate earnings, they would discover that most of the underlying data tied to the general economy has been stagnant or even in decline for most of this ‘decade long’ recovery.¬† And just as the time between Thanksgiving and December 31 is a major barometer for how retail businesses will succeed overall in a given year, so to does the weekly report on new jobless claims provide the potential for a future trend going forward in the labor market.
On Nov. 16 we just got the numbers for the initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 4, and for the first time since 2016 when analysts were thinking the economy was about to turn downward, claims spiked which is a potentially strong indicator for an oncoming recession.
Ignoring the storm-driven aberrations, this week’s 10k jump in initial jobless claims to 249k signals a notable regime shift in the labor market.¬†For the first time since 2016’s growth scare, there are more Americans opening jobless claims than last year…
In fact there are over 4% more people on initial jobless claims than this time last year…
Did the jobs market just turn?
And when claims turn, a recession follows… –¬†Zerohedge
For sure, a single week or even a month of increasing claims does not a trend make, however over the past two months multiple analysts from banks, to central banks, to the alternative media have been forecasting a recession, especially once the Fed and ECB began to promote tapering of their stimulus programs and the intention of raising interest rates much higher.
With over 6700 retail stores closing to date here in 2017, household debt at record levels, and 78% of all households admitting to living paycheck to paycheck, the likelihood of this holiday shopping season being a strong one is growing more unlikely each day.¬† And this will only exacerbate the oncoming economic collapse because it will mean less part time hires by these stores, and more layoffs once the end of the year comes around.
Kenneth Schortgen Jr¬†is¬†a writer for¬†The Daily Economist,¬†Secretsofthefed.com,¬†Roguemoney.net, and¬†Viral Liberty, and hosts¬†the popular¬†youtube podcast¬†on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays.¬†Ken can also¬†be heard Wednesday afternoons giving an weekly economic report on the¬†Angel Clark radio show.