New PMI and manufacturing data shows that last weeks GDP print was nothing but a fraud
Last week the Obama administration reported GDP for the third quarter at a whopping 2.9%, which was the highest since 2014 and was in complete opposition to the real news of layoffs, shutdowns, and lower retail volumes. Â And many analysts have speculated that the false print was likely done to aid Hillary Clinton as the Presidential election draws near.
Now on Oct. 31 two new data points out pretty much confirm their suspicions as both manufacturing and PMI indicate the economy is not only declining, but probably already in recession.
Following September’s bounce, October’s Chicago PMI plunged to 5-month lows. The 50.4 print is a four standard-deviation miss with new orders sliding, production tumbling, but prices paid surging to the highest since Nov 2014. So, stagflation looms as inflationary pressures build but economic growth outlooks decline.
The bounce from June to September… is over… – Zerohedge
Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Outlook has now contracted for 22 consecutive months (the 2008/9 crisis collapse was 24 straight months) with a -1.5 print in October (missing expectations of +2). Production declined, Capacity Utilization tumbled, New Orders and Average Workweek contracted, and wages dropped (while prices paid rose).
Ironically one of the lies used by the Commerce Department to justify their 2.9% increase to GDP for Q3 was a huge increase in inventories. Â However, looking above at the Dallas Fed’s numbers you see that one of their primary points for contraction over the past few months is the DECLINE in new orders, which of course contradicts entirely the government’s report from last week.
When you break down economic indicators using real variables instead of imaginary seasonal and double seasonal adjustments, and add to them the declines in consumer spending, confidence, and retail volume, you will come to the conclusion that not only is the U.S. economy already in a strong recession, but we are also in a period of stagflation which should have the menace of increasing inflation ready to hit prices even more than just in Obamacare premiums.
Kenneth Schortgen JrÂ isÂ a writer for The Daily Economist, Secretsofthefed.com,Â Roguemoney.net, and Viral Liberty, and hostsÂ the popular youtube podcast on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays.Â Ken can alsoÂ be heard Wednesday afternoons giving an weekly economic report on theÂ Angel Clark radio show.